Newsletter Volume 51

Article 1 — The Market This Week

The crypto market is currently on an upswing in what’s known as “Uptober,” with Bitcoin and various altcoins gaining momentum. The total crypto market cap reached $1.15 trillion on October 23, while Bitcoin’s price approached $31,000. October typically sees positive growth in the crypto market, and trading volume has been consistently high, exceeding $1 billion per day since October 13. Bitcoin has historically performed well in October, with 2023 already showing an 11.2% increase. Moreover, the crypto market has seen consistent inflows into digital asset funds for four weeks, totaling $66 million in the 42nd week of 2023.

Bitcoin surged to new three-month highs on October 23 during the first Asian trading session, reaching $30,944 on Bitstamp. This marked the first weekly close above $30,000 since the summer and brought Bitcoin closer to long-term resistance levels, including the 2023 high at $31,800. Analysts noted that Bitcoin was once again approaching a key resistance level, and some suggested it was poised for a significant move higher, drawing comparisons to its performance before reaching its year-to-date high.

The Bitcoin price surged past $35,000 on 24th October, due to anticipation surrounding the potential approval of the BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF and the expectation of a bull market. The rally was triggered by the listing of the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), typically a step towards ETF approval by the SEC. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management company, plans to seed its Spot Bitcoin ETF in October. While listing on the DTCC doesn’t guarantee immediate approval, BlackRock’s influence suggests it is preparing for approval. BlackRock recently indicated that a seed investor might fund the product this month, as per a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The exact date of the investment remains undisclosed.

In the other news, the UK has passed the Economic Crime and Corporate Transparency Bill, which grants law enforcement the power to seize and freeze cryptocurrency linked to criminal activities without a conviction. The bill, which covers various crimes, including drug trafficking and cybercrime, was introduced in September and subsequently amended to include provisions related to terrorism and asset seizure for identifying cryptocurrency associated with crime. While the UK aims to become a global crypto hub, it is also taking steps to combat crypto-related crimes and has already seized significant amounts of cryptocurrency tied to criminal activities.

KEY METRICS

Total Crypto Market Cap: $1.29 T

Bitcoin Market Cap: $665.71 B

Ethereum Market Cap: $214.81 B

ETH/BTC Ratio: 0.05

Ethereum Gas Price: 15 gwei

DeFi TVL: $69.36 B

Fear and Greed Index: 70 (Greed)

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: $8.09 T

Article 2 — Weekly Spotlight on IC15

The global cryptocurrency market surged as the US Fed Chair hinted at no rate hikes and optimism grew about Bitcoin ETF approval. The IC15 Index rose by 1727 points to reach 37,189 on 20th October, with all coins in the Index trading higher. Solana led the way with a 12.75% increase, followed by XRP, Polygon, Uniswap, and Bitcoin with gains in the 5–8% range.

The UAE introduced RAK Digital Asset Oasis (RAK DAO), a free economic zone focused on digital assets, Web3, blockchain, and AI development. The Karnataka government plans to create a regulatory sandbox in partnership with the Bharat Web3 Foundation to support emerging technologies like blockchain and Web3.

A report from Matrixport suggests that Bitcoin’s price could reach $56,000 if BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF is approved. Bitpanda, a crypto exchange, obtained a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) license in Norway to expand its presence in the European bloc.

The global cryptocurrency market experienced a boost in prices following optimism about Bitcoin ETF approval, with the IC15 Index rising by 912 points to 38,305 on Monday. Most coins in the Index saw gains, except Tron, which was down by 0.39%. Major gainers included Chainlink, Polygon, Dogecoin, and Solana, with increases ranging from 4% to 11%. Hong Kong’s regulatory authorities issued a joint statement, updating policies on virtual currency sales and prohibiting retail investors from buying complex crypto products. JP Morgan’s research report suggested that the US SEC is likely to approve multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs, leading to increased investor optimism and a surge in Bitcoin prices. Additionally, the Central Bank of Argentina is working on a legislative framework for its digital currency, the digital peso, while European data protection regulators recommended strengthening personal data protection standards for the EU Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) for smaller transactions.

The article discusses a surge in optimism in the cryptocurrency market, driven by the anticipation of Bitcoin ETF approval. The IC15 Index experienced a drop, with most coins trading in the red, including Polygon, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and Polkadot, while Chainlink, Solana, and XRP were the only gainers. The market sentiment is reaching new highs, partly due to the potential approval of BlackRock’s cryptocurrency ETF. Regulatory changes and the IRS extending the comment period for new tax rules are being closely watched. Additionally, the possible election of Rep. Tom Emmer as House Speaker highlights growing recognition of blockchain and digital currencies in politics. Finally, Microsoft’s Azure is outperforming Google Cloud in the cloud service industry, thanks to substantial AI investments.

The global crypto market remains resilient despite stock market turmoil, with the IC15 Index closing at 42,553, up 583 points on Thursday. Many major cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin, Avalanche, Shiba Inu, and Cardano saw gains of 5–8%, while Chainlink recorded a 3.35% loss. India is now the world’s second-largest crypto market with over $260 billion in transaction volume, despite high taxes and regulatory challenges. Nigeria is considering expanding its official currency market and potentially banning the parallel forex market, expecting a $10 billion influx. Deutsche Bank and Standard Chartered are piloting the Universal Digital Payments Network (UDPN) to facilitate interaction between blockchain transactions, stablecoins, and central bank digital currencies. Saudi Arabia is partnering with Lunit to enhance healthcare through AI, focusing on early cancer detection and precision diagnosis. In the U.S., newly appointed House Speaker Mike Johnson introduces uncertainty into cryptocurrency regulation discussions.

Article 3 — The Battle of Bulls and Bears

On October 20th, Bitcoin (BTC) exceeded $30,000, marking an 11% weekly gain, driven by optimism about a potential U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval. Forked tokens like Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin SV (BSV) also surged up to 26%, reflecting signs of excessive enthusiasm. Several ETF providers modified their filings in the past week, pressuring the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to reconsider its position on a Bitcoin ETF approval. Major cryptocurrencies rebounded, with Bitcoin surpassing $30,000 and Ethereum reaching $1,600. XRP increased by 7.2% due to a positive court decision for Ripple. Solana’s SOL also gained, rising by 12% and accumulating a weekly gain of over 25%.

MicroStrategy has seen its Bitcoin holdings turn profitable as BTC’s price surpassed $30,000. The company holds 158,245 BTC valued at $4.847 billion, earning about $132 million from their initial investment. MicroStrategy began buying Bitcoin in 2020 and increased purchases in 2023, recovering from losses caused by various factors, including interest rate policies and crypto-related issues. Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy’s co-founder and chairman, highlighted Bitcoin’s outperformance compared to traditional assets since the company adopted its cryptocurrency-buying strategy in August 2020.

Contrarily, if the price drops below $30,000, it could indicate traders are selling to take profits, potentially leading to a decline to around $28,428.

On October 22, Binance Coin (BNB) broke above a downtrend line, invalidating a bearish pattern, which is a bullish signal. The BNB/USDT pair has now reached a horizontal resistance at $223, and if it surpasses this level, it could potentially rise to $243 and then $250. However, bears are expected to defend this zone strongly. To regain control, bears need to push the price below the moving averages, which could lead to a retest of the critical support at $203. A drop below this level may trigger the next leg of the downtrend, potentially taking BNB to $183.

XRP has maintained its price above moving averages since October 19, with bulls aiming to reach a resistance level at $0.56. If it sharply drops from this level, it could remain in a range. The upward sloping moving averages and positive RSI suggest bullish momentum. If XRP breaks $0.56, it may rally to $0.66 and possibly $0.71.

Bears attempted a pullback in Solana on October 22, but the bulls held their ground, indicating their confidence in the upward trend. Buying resumed on October 23, with the aim to reach the pattern target of $32.81, but bears once more sold at higher levels.

Ethereum’s Ether (ETH) increased in value on October 25, in line with the overall cryptocurrency market, driven by optimism about the potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. ETH’s price settled at around $1,800, a key resistance level, following a 9% weekly gain. The higher price was accompanied by increased trading volumes, signaling strong interest from buyers.

Article 4 — Weekly Spotlight

In October, the crypto market has experienced a positive uptrend, with Bitcoin and altcoins gaining momentum. The total crypto market cap reached $1.15 trillion, and Bitcoin approached $31,000. This is in line with historical October performance for Bitcoin, which has seen an 11.2% increase in 2023. There have been consistent inflows into digital asset funds for four weeks, totaling $66 million in the 42nd week of 2023.

Bitcoin reached new three-month highs on October 23, closing above $30,000 for the first time since the summer. It’s nearing key resistance levels, raising expectations for a significant move higher. On October 24, Bitcoin surged past $35,000 due to anticipation of the BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF approval. BlackRock’s listing on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) suggests it’s preparing for ETF approval, although the exact date remains undisclosed.

In other news, the UK has passed the Economic Crime and Corporate Transparency Bill, granting law enforcement the power to seize and freeze cryptocurrency associated with criminal activities without a conviction. This is part of the UK’s efforts to combat crypto-related crimes while aiming to become a global crypto hub.

The global cryptocurrency market has experienced fluctuations with gains and losses, driven by factors such as Bitcoin ETF approval anticipation, regulatory changes, and market sentiment. Various cryptocurrencies saw price changes, and several countries, including the UAE and India, are actively participating in the crypto space. Additionally, blockchain technology and AI are making advancements in various sectors, while political figures like Rep. Tom Emmer are gaining recognition for their involvement in blockchain and digital currencies.

On October 20th, Bitcoin surged past $30,000 with an 11% weekly gain, driven by hopes for a U.S. Bitcoin ETF approval. Forked tokens like Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV also rose significantly. Various ETF providers modified their filings, pressuring the SEC to reconsider. Other major cryptocurrencies also rebounded, with XRP increasing by 7.2% due to a favorable court decision for Ripple, and Solana’s SOL gaining 12%.

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings turned profitable as BTC surpassed $30,000, earning them about $132 million from their initial investment. If BTC drops below $30,000, it could indicate profit-taking by traders.

Binance Coin (BNB) broke a bearish pattern and reached a horizontal resistance at $223, with potential for further gains. XRP maintained its price above moving averages, aiming for a resistance level at $0.56. Solana and Ethereum’s Ether also saw positive price movements and increased trading volumes, driven by optimism around a U.S. Bitcoin ETF approval.